Development

Prediction markets underestimated the Opus autonomy jump

development2025-12-20

Claim

Manifold prediction markets significantly underestimated the Opus 4.5 autonomy breakout, leaving forecasters recalibrating for recursive self-improvement.

Reporting date: 2025-12-20 (not necessarily the event date)

Sources

Attribution and reporting linked by this record; links do not imply independent verification.

Welcome to December 20, 2025 (theinnermostloop.substack.com)

Five days after 91% of AI 2027 predictions were reported accurate, the same community is caught out by a single result.

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Reported in

Welcome to December 20, 2025

Evidence for

Autonomy has a clock speed

Supersedes

91% of verifiable AI 2027 predictions hold up

Referenced by

Welcome to December 20, 2025

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Citation formatCitation text

Prediction markets underestimated the Opus autonomy jump
Innermost Loop KB — secondary record
Reporting date: 2025-12-20
KB permalink: https://nicholsn.github.io/innermost-loop-kb/developments/2025-12-20-markets-missed-opus-breakout
Claim: Manifold prediction markets significantly underestimated the Opus 4.5 autonomy breakout, leaving forecasters recalibrating for recursive self-improvement.
Attributed sources:
- Welcome to December 20, 2025 — https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-december-20-2025
This citation does not imply independent verification of linked-source claims.

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