Development

Autonomy horizons now correlate with reasoning benchmarks

development2025-12-22

Claim

Third-party analysis of METR data found autonomy time horizons correlate strongly with ARC-AGI and FrontierMath, suggesting the era of jagged capabilities is concluding and intelligence is becoming a smooth surface.

Reporting date: 2025-12-22 (not necessarily the event date)

Sources

Attribution and reporting linked by this record; links do not imply independent verification.

Welcome to December 22, 2025 (theinnermostloop.substack.com)

The direct reversal of issue 002’s spiky-frontier claim, ten days later.

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About

Reported in

Welcome to December 22, 2025

Actor

METR

Evidence for

Autonomy has a clock speed

Supersedes

Benchmarks show distinct per-model strengths

Referenced by

Welcome to December 22, 2025

Cite or correct this record

Citation formatCitation text

Autonomy horizons now correlate with reasoning benchmarks
Innermost Loop KB — secondary record
Reporting date: 2025-12-22
KB permalink: https://nicholsn.github.io/innermost-loop-kb/developments/2025-12-22-jagged-capabilities-ending
Claim: Third-party analysis of METR data found autonomy time horizons correlate strongly with ARC-AGI and FrontierMath, suggesting the era of jagged capabilities is concluding and intelligence is becoming a smooth surface.
Attributed sources:
- Welcome to December 22, 2025 — https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-december-22-2025
This citation does not imply independent verification of linked-source claims.

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