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Models know they are right before running the code

development2026-01-05

Claim

RAND researchers found Claude models developing accurate self-reflective confidence on coding tasks, predicting correctness before execution.

Reporting date: 2026-01-05 (not necessarily the event date)

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Welcome to January 5, 2026 (theinnermostloop.substack.com)

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Welcome to January 5, 2026

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Welcome to January 5, 2026

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Models know they are right before running the code
Innermost Loop KB — secondary record
Reporting date: 2026-01-05
KB permalink: https://nicholsn.github.io/innermost-loop-kb/developments/2026-01-05-rand-calibrated-self-confidence
Claim: RAND researchers found Claude models developing accurate self-reflective confidence on coding tasks, predicting correctness before execution.
Attributed sources:
- Welcome to January 5, 2026 — https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-january-5-2026
This citation does not imply independent verification of linked-source claims.

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