Development

A benchmark gives models $10,000 to bet

development2026-01-13

Claim

A new Prediction Arena benchmark gives state-of-the-art models $10,000 in real cash to bet on Kalshi, testing real-time reasoning about probable futures.

Reported metric: $10,000

Reporting date: 2026-01-13 (not necessarily the event date)

Sources

Attribution and reporting linked by this record; links do not imply independent verification.

Welcome to January 13, 2026 (theinnermostloop.substack.com)

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About

Prediction Arena

Reported in

Welcome to January 13, 2026

Actor

Kalshi

Evidence for

Supersedes

An 8B model reaches SOTA forecasting by predicting its own future

Referenced by

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Citation formatCitation text

A benchmark gives models $10,000 to bet
Innermost Loop KB — secondary record
Reporting date: 2026-01-13
KB permalink: https://nicholsn.github.io/innermost-loop-kb/developments/2026-01-13-prediction-arena-real-money
Claim: A new Prediction Arena benchmark gives state-of-the-art models $10,000 in real cash to bet on Kalshi, testing real-time reasoning about probable futures.
Attributed sources:
- Welcome to January 13, 2026 — https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-january-13-2026
This citation does not imply independent verification of linked-source claims.

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