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Kaplan puts even odds on replacing theoretical physicists in three years

development2026-01-29

Claim

Anthropic co-founder Jared Kaplan predicted a 50% chance theoretical physicists will be replaced by AI within three years, as OpenAI released Prism for scientists and Epoch launched FrontierMath: Open Problems.

Reported metric: 50% in 3 years

Reporting date: 2026-01-29 (not necessarily the event date)

Sources

Attribution and reporting linked by this record; links do not imply independent verification.

Welcome to January 29, 2026 (theinnermostloop.substack.com)

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Prism

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Welcome to January 29, 2026

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Supersedes

Hobbyists attempt all 675 open Erdős problems at once

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Kaplan puts even odds on replacing theoretical physicists in three years
Innermost Loop KB — secondary record
Reporting date: 2026-01-29
KB permalink: https://nicholsn.github.io/innermost-loop-kb/developments/2026-01-29-kaplan-physicists-replaced-in-three-years
Claim: Anthropic co-founder Jared Kaplan predicted a 50% chance theoretical physicists will be replaced by AI within three years, as OpenAI released Prism for scientists and Epoch launched FrontierMath: Open Problems.
Attributed sources:
- Welcome to January 29, 2026 — https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-january-29-2026
This citation does not imply independent verification of linked-source claims.

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