Development

A prediction market has called every Fed decision since 2022

development2026-02-10

Claim

Kalshi has predicted every Federal Reserve rate decision correctly since 2022, while AI accounted for 35% of European venture deals in 2025.

Reported metric: 35% of EU deals

Reporting date: 2026-02-10 (not necessarily the event date)

Sources

Attribution and reporting linked by this record; links do not imply independent verification.

Welcome to February 10, 2026 (theinnermostloop.substack.com)

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Reported in

Welcome to February 10, 2026

Actor

Kalshi

Evidence for

Referenced by

Welcome to February 10, 2026

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Citation formatCitation text

A prediction market has called every Fed decision since 2022
Innermost Loop KB — secondary record
Reporting date: 2026-02-10
KB permalink: https://nicholsn.github.io/innermost-loop-kb/developments/2026-02-10-kalshi-perfect-on-the-fed
Claim: Kalshi has predicted every Federal Reserve rate decision correctly since 2022, while AI accounted for 35% of European venture deals in 2025.
Attributed sources:
- Welcome to February 10, 2026 — https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-february-10-2026
This citation does not imply independent verification of linked-source claims.

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