Development

A lab claims six of ten confidential research problems

development2026-02-16

Claim

OpenAI believes it has solved at least six of ten research-level problems in the First Proof challenge, whose solutions were kept confidential, while the AI 2027 authors graded 2025 progress at nearly 65% of their predicted pace, putting full software automation as early as late 2027.

Reported metric: 6/10 / 65% of pace

Reporting date: 2026-02-16 (not necessarily the event date)

Sources

Attribution and reporting linked by this record; links do not imply independent verification.

Welcome to February 16, 2026 (theinnermostloop.substack.com)

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Reported in

Welcome to February 16, 2026

Actor

OpenAI

Evidence for

Supersedes

The 2020 forecast's biggest error was algorithmic progress

Referenced by

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Citation formatCitation text

A lab claims six of ten confidential research problems
Innermost Loop KB — secondary record
Reporting date: 2026-02-16
KB permalink: https://nicholsn.github.io/innermost-loop-kb/developments/2026-02-16-six-of-ten-first-proof
Claim: OpenAI believes it has solved at least six of ten research-level problems in the First Proof challenge, whose solutions were kept confidential, while the AI 2027 authors graded 2025 progress at nearly 65% of their predicted pace, putting full software automation as early as late 2027.
Attributed sources:
- Welcome to February 16, 2026 — https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-february-16-2026
This citation does not imply independent verification of linked-source claims.

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