Development

Traders put a founder's odds of winning at 37%

development2026-05-05

Claim

Prediction market traders put Elon Musk's odds of beating OpenAI in court at 37%, and two days before trial he reportedly texted Greg Brockman that by the end of the week he and Sam would be the most hated men in America.

Reported metric: 37%

Reporting date: 2026-05-05 (not necessarily the event date)

Sources

Attribution and reporting linked by this record; links do not imply independent verification.

Welcome to May 5, 2026 (theinnermostloop.substack.com)

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Reported in

Welcome to May 5, 2026

Actor

Evidence for

Supersedes

Musk admits under oath that xAI distilled a rival's models

Referenced by

Welcome to May 5, 2026

Cite or correct this record

Citation formatCitation text

Traders put a founder's odds of winning at 37%
Innermost Loop KB — secondary record
Reporting date: 2026-05-05
KB permalink: https://nicholsn.github.io/innermost-loop-kb/developments/2026-05-05-markets-price-the-founders-lawsuit
Claim: Prediction market traders put Elon Musk's odds of beating OpenAI in court at 37%, and two days before trial he reportedly texted Greg Brockman that by the end of the week he and Sam would be the most hated men in America.
Attributed sources:
- Welcome to May 5, 2026 — https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-may-5-2026
This citation does not imply independent verification of linked-source claims.

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