Development

A model replaying slices of the web occasionally beats a prediction market

development2026-05-17

Claim

Sakana's FutureSim replays slices of the web to forecast events, with a frontier coding model leading at 25% accuracy and occasionally beating a prediction market's crowd.

Reported metric: 25%

Reporting date: 2026-05-17 (not necessarily the event date)

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Welcome to May 17, 2026 (theinnermostloop.substack.com)

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Welcome to May 17, 2026

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A model replaying slices of the web occasionally beats a prediction market
Innermost Loop KB — secondary record
Reporting date: 2026-05-17
KB permalink: https://nicholsn.github.io/innermost-loop-kb/developments/2026-05-17-a-simulator-beats-the-crowd
Claim: Sakana's FutureSim replays slices of the web to forecast events, with a frontier coding model leading at 25% accuracy and occasionally beating a prediction market's crowd.
Attributed sources:
- Welcome to May 17, 2026 — https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-may-17-2026
This citation does not imply independent verification of linked-source claims.

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