A number theorist concedes his AI bet four years early

Claim

After ten long-standing open problems were settled, number theorist Daniel Litt conceded four years early his bet that AI could not produce Annals-quality number theory under $100,000 per paper, calling it a big deal, as prediction markets priced an AI-solved Millennium Prize Problem at 31% by 2027 and 52% by 2028.

Reported metric: 52% by 2028

Reporting date: 2026-08-02 (not necessarily the event date)

Sources

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• Welcome to August 2, 2026 (theinnermostloop.substack.com)