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Scott Alexander

Psychiatrist and author of the Astral Codex Ten blog, whose 2026 postmortem on the 2020 Biological Anchors report found its largest error was underestimating algorithmic progress.

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Welcome to February 13, 2026 (theinnermostloop.substack.com)

Scott Alexander writes Astral Codex Ten (formerly Slate Star Codex), a blog widely read in the AI-forecasting community. In this corpus he appears once, for the Bio Anchors postmortem that found the 2020 report’s largest error to be underestimating algorithmic progress, the forecast-retrospective counterpart to the AI 2027 accuracy check.

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2026-02-13: The 2020 forecast's biggest error was algorithmic progress

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Scott Alexander
Innermost Loop KB — secondary record
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KB permalink: https://nicholsn.github.io/innermost-loop-kb/people/scott-alexander
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- Welcome to February 13, 2026 — https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-february-13-2026
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