Development

Autonomous capability is estimated to double monthly

development2025-12-13

Claim

Some analysts estimate the doubling time for autonomous capability has fallen to roughly one month, making annual roadmaps obsolete.

Reported metric: ~1 month doubling

Reporting date: 2025-12-13 (not necessarily the event date)

Sources

Attribution and reporting linked by this record; links do not imply independent verification.

Welcome to December 13, 2025 (theinnermostloop.substack.com)

A rate claim, and the reason the issue treats planning horizons rather than capabilities as the thing under threat.

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Welcome to December 13, 2025

Actor

Epoch AI

Evidence for

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Citation formatCitation text

Autonomous capability is estimated to double monthly
Innermost Loop KB — secondary record
Reporting date: 2025-12-13
KB permalink: https://nicholsn.github.io/innermost-loop-kb/developments/2025-12-13-autonomy-doubling-one-month
Claim: Some analysts estimate the doubling time for autonomous capability has fallen to roughly one month, making annual roadmaps obsolete.
Attributed sources:
- Welcome to December 13, 2025 — https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-december-13-2025
This citation does not imply independent verification of linked-source claims.

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