Autonomy horizons are doubling fast enough to imply 10x a year

Claim

METR data shows autonomy time horizons doubling more rapidly since o1-preview, implying tenfold annual increases, while Nick Bostrom concluded the optimal path to superintelligence is swift to harbor and slow to berth.

Reported metric: 10x/year

Reporting date: 2026-02-13 (not necessarily the event date)

Sources

Attribution and reporting linked by this record; links do not imply independent verification.

• Welcome to February 13, 2026 (theinnermostloop.substack.com)