Development

Models' no-chain-of-thought time horizon has doubled yearly for six years

development2026-06-12

Claim

A study found frontier models' no-chain-of-thought time horizon has doubled yearly for six years, with GPT-5.5 reasoning past three human-minutes and projected to reach 25 by 2030.

Reported metric: 3 min now, 25 by 2030

Reporting date: 2026-06-12 (not necessarily the event date)

Sources

Attribution and reporting linked by this record; links do not imply independent verification.

Welcome to June 12, 2026 (theinnermostloop.substack.com)

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Reported in

Welcome to June 12, 2026

Actor

OpenAI

Evidence for

Supersedes

Capability doubling time compresses to four and a half months

Referenced by

Cite or correct this record

Citation formatCitation text

Models' no-chain-of-thought time horizon has doubled yearly for six years
Innermost Loop KB — secondary record
Reporting date: 2026-06-12
KB permalink: https://nicholsn.github.io/innermost-loop-kb/developments/2026-06-12-the-no-cot-horizon-doubles-yearly
Claim: A study found frontier models' no-chain-of-thought time horizon has doubled yearly for six years, with GPT-5.5 reasoning past three human-minutes and projected to reach 25 by 2030.
Attributed sources:
- Welcome to June 12, 2026 — https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-june-12-2026
This citation does not imply independent verification of linked-source claims.

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