Theme

Compute is the capital stack

Explore this theme’s evidence over time →

Sources

Attribution and reporting linked by this record; links do not imply independent verification.

Welcome to December 11, 2025 (theinnermostloop.substack.com)

Compute stops behaving like an input and starts behaving like money: backlogs, swaps, and balance sheets denominated in it. The issue’s closing line, compute is the new gold standard, names this directly.

Development timeline

Newest reporting dates first. Reporting dates may differ from event dates.

2026-10-12: Anthropic urges faster data-center commitments

2026-10-12: Tom Brown reportedly secures SpaceX compute for Anthropic

2026-10-03: Anthropic reportedly targets a listing at up to $2 trillion

2026-10-03: Meta reportedly claims a data-center tax break

2026-10-03: Micron reports a large quarterly earnings figure

2026-09-30: Anthropic reportedly commits $518 billion to compute

2026-09-30: NVIDIA courts insurers for chip-backed investment

2026-09-27: A forecast puts AI construction spending at $10.3 trillion

2026-09-17: Anthropic signs its first Australian data-center lease

2026-09-17: Crusoe funds transportable data centers

2026-09-17: Banks arrange financing backed by TPU infrastructure

2026-09-17: Amazon signs a large generator supply deal

2026-09-17: OpenAI considers a new funding round

2026-09-13: The AI boom wrecks a bitcoin mining plan as miners convert to inference

2026-09-12: Compute is recast as a fungible, durable, rentable asset

2026-09-07: A lab signs 14.8 gigawatts of compute deals worth up to $517 billion

2026-09-06: A chipmaker's equity book grows tenfold to $99 billion

2026-09-04: A lab will deploy five gigawatts of accelerators next year

2026-08-31: A power developer hands a lab $5.5 billion in warrants to anchor its IPO

2026-08-27: A chipmaker acquires the open-model commons for $12.9 billion

2026-08-27: A lab will pay $45 billion for 460 megawatts at a campus a rival abandoned

2026-08-27: A second $100 billion spaceport is announced with ten pads

2026-08-21: A lab's IPO could match or beat the record share sale

2026-08-19: Founders take supervoting shares, leaving the throttle with them

2026-08-19: Memory prices rise 485% as hyperscalers lock up 2027 capacity

2026-08-19: Physical AI takes $47.4 billion in six months, beating three prior years combined

2026-08-17: A lab's run rate passes $65 billion, up sevenfold in seven months

2026-08-17: A fab is framed as a bet that pays off however a geopolitical question resolves

2026-08-17: Nine tech giants carry $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet AI commitments

2026-08-15: A dollar buys 49% more compute every year as leases go off balance sheet

2026-08-15: A lab reports revenue up fourteen-fold with positive operating income

2026-08-13: A lab moves to buy a company to squeeze more inference from existing silicon

2026-08-13: A memory maker commits $720 billion and calls demand a war

2026-08-12: A lab vows to cover any consumer electricity increases it causes

2026-08-12: Half a trillion is marshalled as chips become an investable asset class

2026-08-10: A state unleashes $28 trillion in markets and fast-tracks chip listings

2026-08-08: Analysts declare a storied lab no longer a frontier lab

2026-08-08: A fab will host a particle accelerator as a shared lithography light source

2026-08-06: A fab breaks ground aiming at a terawatt a year of AI compute

2026-08-05: A buyer commits to one chip vendor exclusively, inverting diversification

2026-08-05: A first public earnings call targets 20 gigawatts and lunar robot factories

2026-08-04: A financing program routes $150 billion of chips to a single lab

2026-08-04: A strategy chief says recursive self-improvement is what justifies the spending

2026-08-02: The installed AI chip base doubles every nine months

2026-08-01: A retailer completes a $50 billion investment for 5% of a lab

2026-07-31: A $15 billion campus loan is backstopped by a hyperscaler's credit rating

2026-07-31: A cloud's growth adds $450 billion in a single day

2026-07-30: A Cold War uranium site is converted into a $100 billion data campus

2026-07-30: A chipmaker's operating profit rises nineteen-fold on AI memory

2026-07-30: An analyst argues compute could get ten times more expensive, not cheaper

2026-07-29: A rival supply chain matures as the market treats it as a threat

2026-07-29: A company falls 24% for building too little even at $190 billion of capex

2026-07-29: A chipmaker is in talks to backstop $250 billion for a ten-gigawatt site

2026-07-26: A lab asks a memory maker to supply its own chip effort

2026-07-24: A cloud giant shutters its AGI lab as a rival's stake swells to $124 billion

2026-07-23: A hyperscaler posts its first-ever quarterly cash burn

2026-07-23: A quantum processor learns from its own errors mid-run

2026-07-21: Off-balance-sheet AI debt swells eightfold to $1.65 trillion

2026-07-20: A foundry's buildout is limited by a shortage of construction workers

2026-07-18: A rival may rent a lab up to $10 billion in GPUs under a deal the lab proposed

2026-07-18: Analysts argue cheaper cognition summons more silicon, not less

2026-07-17: A country makes its first wafers on ninety-nanometer technology

2026-07-16: Fusion draws a record $4.48 billion in annual funding

2026-07-16: A foundry's US buildout reaches ten fabs and $265 billion

2026-07-15: A lithography maker pledges 30% more EUV capacity two years running

2026-07-15: Prediction markets open on hourly GPU rental prices

2026-07-14: A foundry's revenue jumps 68% on sold-out leading-edge capacity

2026-07-12: A chipmaker invests in, sells to, and backstops the same customers

2026-07-10: A company unveils a million-satellite inference swarm

2026-07-10: US venture funding reaches $412.7 billion in six months

2026-07-08: A chip division's year beats everything it earned across four decades

2026-07-07: A lab signs a 20-year, $19B lease on a former bitcoin mine

2026-07-05: Heads of state personally court chip and cloud investment

2026-07-04: A lab explores custom silicon as buying compute becomes becoming compute

2026-07-04: A social network builds a cloud to monetize its own buildout

2026-07-03: Diffusion models draw RF circuits that beat human layouts

2026-07-02: Compute swings into surplus as owners start reselling capacity

2026-07-01: A country's monthly exports top $100B for the first time on chip shipments

2026-06-30: A $120 million agreement funds a constellation at a Lagrange point

2026-06-29: The five biggest labs still used under half the world's AI compute

2026-06-25: A venture firm funds the first modern exchange for compute

2026-06-25: A memory maker posts tech's highest margin at 84.9%

2026-06-22: A memory maker overtakes its parent rival for the first time since 2000

2026-06-22: An oil major signs a twenty-year deal to power one datacenter

2026-06-17: Hyperscaler capex is forecast to exceed cash flow

2026-06-17: A rocket company buys an IDE maker for $60B

2026-06-15: Contract manufacturers queue up for a gigawatt of orbital datacenters

2026-06-15: A researcher pegs the perfect model at 10.5 quadrillion parameters

2026-06-13: A public listing creates the world's first trillionaire

2026-06-12: A lab signs a dozen letters of intent to lease its own datacenters

2026-06-12: The largest IPO ever is explicitly a fundraise for orbital datacenters

2026-06-09: A 70-meter, 150-kW orbital compute satellite is unveiled

2026-06-09: Three of the largest listings on record queue up at once

2026-06-07: A rival spends a year chasing a lab and ends up powering it

2026-06-07: A bank tells IPO investors one company's revenue could reach $3.4T

2026-06-04: A foundry chief warns chip supply will trail demand for years

2026-06-03: The record TPU credit deal prices at 5.75%

2026-06-01: The memory makers pass the oil majors

2026-06-01: A fund commits up to €75B to five gigawatts of French capacity

2026-05-29: A lab raises $65B at a $900B valuation and passes its rival

2026-05-29: A $36B debt deal is shopped to buy TPUs for one lab to lease

2026-05-28: An ARM server chip outscores the best x86 parts

2026-05-26: Orbital solar climbs tenfold per satellite generation

2026-05-21: Up to $100B of philanthropic stakes is about to become liquid

2026-05-21: A lab pays its rival's owner $15 billion a year for compute

2026-05-20: A lab starts selling multi-year compute lock-ins

2026-05-20: One company processes 3.2 quadrillion tokens a month

2026-05-19: Compute futures are planned for a major regulated derivatives exchange

2026-05-18: A pre-listing valuation of $2.4 trillion trades on perpetual futures

2026-05-18: Two labs take 89% of revenue across the most mature AI startups

2026-05-17: An exchange rewrites index rules so one listing qualifies immediately

2026-05-17: A gigawatt datacenter costs $38 billion up front

2026-05-15: Washington clears about ten Chinese firms to buy H200s

2026-05-15: A lab agrees terms on $30B at a $900B valuation

2026-05-14: A foundation buys $108M of compute and donates it

2026-05-14: A lab raises $650M to have AI experiment on improving itself

2026-05-12: A lab spins up a $4B services arm with 150 embedded engineers

2026-05-12: A co-founder's stake is confirmed at roughly $7 billion

2026-05-12: A space startup raises $275M for orbital GPUs and power beaming

2026-05-11: Two labs are projected to out-earn a chipmaker's prior-year revenue

2026-05-08: SpaceX hands a competitor a 300-MW datacenter and closes its own lab

2026-05-08: A lab grows eighty-fold annualized against a planned tenfold

2026-05-06: One customer's contract is 40% of a hyperscaler's cloud backlog

2026-05-06: Samsung crosses a trillion as quarterly chip sales hit $298B

2026-05-05: Both leading labs form billion-dollar ventures with private equity

2026-05-04: Five companies will spend as much as every non-tech S&P firm combined

2026-05-04: One lab is using a ninth of the GPUs it owns

2026-04-30: Cloud AI revenue annualizes at $37B, up 123%

2026-04-29: OpenAI misses user and revenue targets as its cloud terms loosen

2026-04-27: A pay package is tied to delivering 100 terawatts of compute from space

2026-04-27: Two weight-loss drugs outearn the two leading AI labs combined

2026-04-27: Weights matter less than the inference compute to run them

2026-04-27: Demand is so high that no generation of chips has been retired

2026-04-26: One company is estimated to hold a quarter of global AI compute

2026-04-23: A $25B investment meets a $100B commitment in the other direction

2026-04-23: Artemis II validates laser links as the nervous system for orbital compute

2026-04-23: A memory maker's revenue nearly triples in a year

2026-04-23: Two labs each reach a tenth of a percent of US GDP

2026-04-20: Intel erases every dollar lost in the dot-com crash after 26 years

2026-04-17: Hyperscaler capex passes Apollo, the Interstate and the Marshall Plan combined

2026-04-17: A chipmaker files to list with warrants that scale with its customer's spend

2026-04-17: A model lab becomes a cloud provider for its competitors

2026-04-13: Renting a GPU for an hour gets 48% more expensive in two months

2026-04-13: One lab's revenue is projected to pass the US federal government's

2026-04-09: An old-school valuation model puts Nvidia's fair value at $22 trillion

2026-04-09: One cluster runs seven simultaneous training runs

2026-04-07: One lab's run rate goes from $9B to over $30B in a quarter

2026-04-07: Samsung's quarterly profit rises more than eightfold

2026-04-03: A lab buys a drug discovery company for $400M

2026-04-03: Small open models outcompete rivals twenty times their size

2026-04-02: SpaceX files confidentially for the largest technology listing ever

2026-04-01: Four companies raise nearly two thirds of all venture capital

2026-04-01: OpenAI closes at $852B with retail money for the first time

2026-03-28: Google finances a 2,800-acre campus leased to a competitor

2026-03-27: Compute gets a tradable price index

2026-03-26: The first compute price index that derivatives reference and settle against

2026-03-26: Trillions are financed on trust because the underlying cannot be priced

2026-03-25: Disney ends its OpenAI partnership and a billion-dollar stake

2026-03-25: SpaceX prepares to file for a raise above $75 billion

2026-03-23: Blue Origin asks to launch 51,600 satellites for orbital compute

2026-03-23: OpenAI tempers its datacenter plans ahead of a listing

2026-03-23: A photonics supplier rises 780% in a year

2026-03-23: Terafab targets a billion chips a year at a kilowatt each

2026-03-18: A combat drone software IPO surges 700%

2026-03-17: OpenAI executives call a rival's success a wake-up call

2026-03-17: Nvidia projects a trillion dollars of AI processor sales through 2027

2026-03-17: Stargate pivots from building datacenters to renting them

2026-03-12: A telco commits $250B to network buildout

2026-03-12: Codex passes a billion in annual run rate

2026-03-10: Amazon opens a $37-42B bond sale for datacenters

2026-03-10: A world model startup raises Europe's largest seed round

2026-03-10: The largest human social network buys the largest agent one

2026-03-10: Microsoft ships as a feature the product that cost it $220B

2026-03-08: SoftBank seeks a record $40B loan against its OpenAI stake

2026-03-05: Apple's cheapest laptop ever arrives at $599

2026-03-05: Barclays puts physical AI at $1.4 trillion by 2035

2026-03-04: Anthropic nears $20B annualized while blacklisted

2026-03-04: A fund puts $876M into fuel cells on the thesis that power is the limit

2026-03-03: The grid revives 765-kV lines not built since the 1980s

2026-03-03: Apple uses a tenth of the compute it spent $4.5B building

2026-02-28: NASA pulls Artemis III forward and commits to yearly moonshots

2026-02-28: Nvidia prepares an inference processor with Groq silicon inside

2026-02-28: OpenAI raises $110B at $730B with 900 million weekly users

2026-02-27: A pharma company builds a 9,000-petaFLOP supercomputer

2026-02-26: The supply-demand gap for compute grows percentage points a day

2026-02-26: Nvidia's datacenter revenue hits $63.3B and it guarantees others' leases

2026-02-23: An index strips out AI and loses 45% of the benchmark

2026-02-20: Epoch projects Anthropic passing OpenAI's revenue by mid-2026

2026-02-20: AI chips are used as loan collateral

2026-02-20: US imports from Taiwan pass China for the first time since 1992

2026-02-19: OpenAI closes $100B as Saudi money enters xAI

2026-02-18: Anthropic expects to pay hyperscalers $80B through 2029

2026-02-16: US productivity growth nearly doubles the decade average

2026-02-13: Anthropic raises $30B at $380B on $14B run-rate

2026-02-12: Investors stop picking a winner and buy the sector

2026-02-12: Smart glasses sales triple to seven million

2026-02-11: Alphabet raises $32 billion of debt in a day

2026-02-10: Alphabet lines up a hundred-year bond for datacenters

2026-02-09: Markets give SpaceX better than even odds of a $2T IPO

2026-02-08: January is the worst month for US job cuts since the Great Recession

2026-02-06: Four companies forecast $650B of combined 2026 capex

2026-02-05: Compute now costs labs more than salaries and marketing combined

2026-02-05: Google doubles capex to $185 billion

2026-02-02: Oracle raises $50B as Nvidia joins OpenAI's round

2026-01-31: A senator asks OpenAI to rule out a federal bailout

2026-01-30: Amazon weighs $50B into OpenAI as SaaS enters a bear market

2026-01-29: One customer is 45% of a hyperscaler's cloud backlog

2026-01-29: OpenAI raises at $830B as Anthropic closes at $350B

2026-01-29: SpaceX plans a $1.5 trillion IPO timed to a planetary alignment

2026-01-27: Microsoft ships Maia 200 as Nvidia and CoreWeave add 5 GW

2026-01-25: US states build their own Bitcoin reserves

2026-01-24: ASML passes a $500B valuation as Delft builds a 6-qubit silicon circuit

2026-01-24: OpenAI's revenue grows 10x to $20B as its compute hits 1.9 GW

2026-01-15: Microsoft becomes one of Anthropic's biggest customers

2026-01-15: OpenAI adds 750 MW of low-latency compute with Cerebras

2026-01-14: A tractor company becomes a $300B AI play

2026-01-14: Specialty silicon raises against the GPU monopoly

2026-01-13: Apple puts Siri on Gemini

2026-01-13: Lilly and Nvidia put $1B into a joint AI lab

2026-01-13: Meta liquidates the metaverse to buy gigawatts

2026-01-12: Alibaba puts Chinese odds of leapfrogging below 20%

2026-01-11: Anthropic's revenue grows 10x for a third straight year

2026-01-11: Global AI compute doubles every seven months

2026-01-11: A trillion dollars of tech wealth leaves California

2026-01-10: AI capex reaches 1.9% of US GDP

2026-01-10: Project Rainier becomes the world's largest datacenter

2026-01-09: Earth passes 15 million H100-equivalents

2026-01-09: The Atlanta Fed doubles its growth forecast

2026-01-09: Lambda raises $350M to rent GPUs

2026-01-09: xAI puts $20B into a Mississippi datacenter

2026-01-08: Alphabet passes Apple to take second place

2026-01-08: Anthropic raises $10B at $350B, doubling in four months

2026-01-07: Mobileye buys into humanoids for $900M

2026-01-07: DRAM gets a futures market

2026-01-07: xAI raises $20B at a $230B valuation

2026-01-06: AMD previews a 2-nm MI500 and ships edge silicon

2026-01-05: AI startups now outnumber US public companies

2026-01-03: Anthropic buys a million TPUs and skips the cloud

2026-01-03: TSMC revenue doubles and Kioxia rises 540%

2026-01-01: OpenAI's stock compensation reaches $1.5M per employee

2026-01-01: OpenAI, SpaceX and Anthropic all plan 2026 IPOs

2026-01-01: xAI runs 450,000 GPUs heading to 900,000

2025-12-31: xAI takes a third site to reach a million chips

2025-12-30: Nvidia buys a $5B stake in Intel

2025-12-30: US AI startups raise a record $150B

2025-12-29: Groq's LPUs are slated for Nvidia's 2028 GPUs

2025-12-29: Epoch projects OpenAI dominating global datacenter capacity by 2027

2025-12-29: SoftBank nears a $108B infrastructure acquisition

2025-12-27: Amazon, Microsoft and Google pledge $67.5B for India

2025-12-26: AI takes half of global venture funding and mints 50 billionaires

2025-12-26: Bank of America forecasts $1T in chip sales

2025-12-25: NVIDIA buys Groq for $20B, its largest acquisition

2025-12-24: US GDP growth hits 4.3% on AI investment

2025-12-22: Blackstone and TPG plan 40 GW as Big Tech's compute share falls to 18%

2025-12-22: OpenAI's compute margins double to 70%

2025-12-20: Cerebras preps a Q2 2026 IPO on inference demand

2025-12-20: The CFTC pilots energy commodity swaps for AI

2025-12-19: A record $61B flowed into datacenters this year

2025-12-19: Michigan approves 1.4 GW for an Oracle and OpenAI Stargate site

2025-12-19: OpenAI raises $100B at an $830B valuation

2025-12-18: Micron revenue rises 57% as the memory shortage bites

2025-12-17: Amazon discusses $10B into OpenAI tied to Trainium adoption

2025-12-16: 68% of CEOs plan to raise AI spending in 2026

2025-12-15: Apollo commits $3B to buy gas plants for compute

2025-12-15: JPMorgan sees memory makers at $1.5T by 2027

2025-12-14: China fuses its datacenters into one machine

2025-12-14: Cisco passes its dot-com peak after 26 years

2025-12-14: US datacenter construction hits $41B annualized and displaces public works

2025-12-13: OpenAI makes enterprise sales the 2026 priority

2025-12-12: Reasoning cost on ARC-AGI-1 falls 390x in a year

2025-12-12: Anthropic orders $10B of Google TPUs

2025-12-12: Stationary storage battery prices fall 45% in a year

2025-12-11: Amazon commits $35 billion to AI in India

2025-12-11: Fervo raises $462M to scale geothermal for AI power

2025-12-11: Memory is nearly half the manufacturing cost of a B200

2025-12-11: Supermicro and xAI build the first gigawatt datacenter

2025-12-11: Oracle's backlog rises 438% to $523 billion

2025-12-11: Ornn executes the first GPU compute swap

2025-12-11: Polymarket prices Musk at 32% to be a trillionaire by end of 2026

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Compute is the capital stack
Innermost Loop KB — secondary record
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KB permalink: https://nicholsn.github.io/innermost-loop-kb/themes/compute-capital-stack
Attributed sources:
- Welcome to December 11, 2025 — https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-december-11-2025
This citation does not imply independent verification of linked-source claims.

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