Development

Decentralized training compute grows four times faster than frontier runs

development2025-12-31

Claim

Epoch AI found decentralized training compute growing 20x annually against 5x for frontier training, on track to catch centralized labs by mid-2031.

Reported metric: 20x vs 5x

Reporting date: 2025-12-31 (not necessarily the event date)

Sources

Attribution and reporting linked by this record; links do not imply independent verification.

Welcome to New Year's Eve 2025 (theinnermostloop.substack.com)

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Reported in

Welcome to New Year's Eve 2025

Actor

Epoch AI

Evidence for

Referenced by

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Decentralized training compute grows four times faster than frontier runs
Innermost Loop KB — secondary record
Reporting date: 2025-12-31
KB permalink: https://nicholsn.github.io/innermost-loop-kb/developments/2025-12-31-decentralized-training-20x
Claim: Epoch AI found decentralized training compute growing 20x annually against 5x for frontier training, on track to catch centralized labs by mid-2031.
Attributed sources:
- Welcome to New Year's Eve 2025 — https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/welcome-to-new-years-eve-2025
This citation does not imply independent verification of linked-source claims.

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