The AI Futures model puts a 2x gap between ASI and peak human capability at July 2034. More interesting is the second number: decentralized training compute growing 20x a year against 5x for frontier runs, converging around mid-2031.
GPT-5.2 Pro takes 29.2% on FrontierMath Tier 4 and a mathematician concludes 2026 will be a hell of a year. Tao concedes the definition of a mathematician will have to broaden.