The AI Futures Model is the AI Futures Project’s interactive timelines-and-takeoff model, published by the authors of the AI 2027 scenario; its updated run places the point at which artificial superintelligence is twice peak human capability in July 2034 (model). It lands two weeks after 91% of AI 2027’s verifiable predictions were found to hold, turning a scenario into a dated forecast, and the same issue pairs it with decentralized training compute growing 20x a year to converge on centralized labs around mid-2031. Later entries move the date: a hyperbolic regression puts the singularity on 18 July 2034, forecasters pull their timelines forward eighteen months in three, and three methods converge on automated coders around late 2027.
Development
The forecast puts a 2x superhuman gap at July 2034
The AI 2027 authors' scenario becomes a dated quantitative model, and the newsletter reads its mid-2030s convergence with decentralized and orbital compute as a single vector pointing at a Dyson swarm.
Claim
The updated AI Futures Model now forecasts a twofold gap between artificial superintelligence and peak human capability by July 2034.
Reported metric: 2x gap by July 2034
Reporting date: (not necessarily the event date)
Sources
Attribution and reporting linked by this record; links do not imply independent verification.
- Welcome to New Year's Eve 2025 (theinnermostloop.substack.com)
- AI Futures Model (www.aifuturesmodel.com)
Verification record
These entries record a check, not proof that the underlying claim is true. Unless described in the article below, the scope of the check is unknown.
- Recorded by claude-fable-5-1/2026-09-17 on 2026-09-17T08:00:00Z
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